An Application of Bayes Theorem as a Hypothesis-Selection Aid in a Complex Information-Processing System

Item

Title
An Application of Bayes Theorem as a Hypothesis-Selection Aid in a Complex Information-Processing System
Date
1964
Index Abstract
Not Available
Photo Quality
Not Needed
Report Number
AMRL TDR 64-51
Creator
Southard, Jack F.
Schum, David A.
Briggs, George E.
Corporate Author
Laboratory of Aviation Psychology
Laboratory
Behavioral Sciences Laboratory
Extent
68
Identifier
AD0607256
Access Rights
OTS
Distribution Classification
1
Contract
AF 33(657)-10763
DoD Project
7184
DoD Task
718403
DTIC Record Exists
No
Distribution Change Authority Correspondence
None
Distribution Conflict
No
Cover Price
1.75
Abstract
The first of a series of experiments investigating the value of automated hypothesis-evaluation aids in multimanmachine systems devoted to assessing or diagnosing threat is described. In the experiment, an eight-man team evaluated threats posed by a hypothetical aggressor. The team made these evaluations on the basis of intelligence information gathered during simulated reconnaissance overflights of aggressor's territory. The primary output of the threat-evaluation team was the commanding officer's posterior probabilities estimates as to aggressor's most likely hostile strategies. During half of the experimental trials, the commander had access to computer-produced posterior probabilities based upon a modification of the Bayes Theorem. The major experimental issue was whether or not these would aid the commander in his hypothesis evaluation. Also investigated was the effect of data-processing load upon system operation. Although some improvement in the posterior probabilities estimates resulted from the commander's having access to the hypothesis-evaluation aid and this improvement became more pronounced as system load increased, the main-order effect of access to the aid was not found to be statistically significant.
Report Availability
Full text available
Date Issued
1964-08
Provenance
RAF Centre of Aviation Medicine
Type
report
Format
1 online resource
Media
AMRLTDR64-051.pdf