Subject Control Over a Bayesian Hypothesis-Selection Aid in a Complex Information-Processing System

Item

Title
Subject Control Over a Bayesian Hypothesis-Selection Aid in a Complex Information-Processing System
Date
1964
Index Abstract
Not Available
Photo Quality
Not Needed
Report Number
AMRL TR 64-95
Creator
Southard, Jack F.
Schum, David A.
Briggs, George E.
Corporate Author
Ohio State University
Laboratory
Behavioral Sciences Laboratory
Extent
50
Identifier
AD0608108
Access Rights
OTS
Distribution Classification
1
Contract
AF 33(657)-10763
DoD Project
7184
DoD Task
718403
DTIC Record Exists
No
Distribution Change Authority Correspondence
None
Distribution Conflict
No
Abstract
This report describes the second experiment in a series devoted to estimating the effectiveness of automated hypothesis selection in man-machine systems in which threat evaluations or threat diagnoses are being performed. In the experiment an eight-man team produced evaluations of various threats posed by a hypothetical aggressor. These evaluations were made on the basis of intelligence information gathered on simulated reconnaissance overflights of the homeland area of the aggressor. IBM 1401 and 7090 computer facilities provided the means for generating the complex stimulus environment or data base. The primary output from this threat evaluation team was a series of a posteriori probabilities estimations produced by the team's commanding officer (CO). These estimations represented the CO's judgments as to the most likely of the four response alternatives available to aggressor in deploying his forces along a border of contention. The purpose of the experiment was to observe whether increasing control over the MBT-aid mechanism would increase the user's acceptance of the aid and improve his threat-diagnosis performance.
Report Availability
Full text available
Date Issued
1964-09
Provenance
RAF Centre of Aviation Medicine
Type
report
Format
1 online resource
Media
AMRLTR64-095.pdf