Title

MEMO: A Model for Evaluating Missile Observation Information

Description

This memorandum describes a mathematical model for processing and evaluating information obtained from observations of missile firings from silo complexes. The model, MEMO (Model for Evaluating Missile Observation information), was developed as an aid for investigating the empty-silo problem (sometimes referred to as the empty-hole problem). The empty-silo problem basically consists of determining a unique a posteriori probability distribution of residual missiles in a silo complex from which some missile launches have been observed. MEMO enables the simulation and investigation of these events as well as other aspects of the problem, e.g., cases involving noncircular errors.Two versions of MEMO are presented, one written for the JOSS* system and one written in Fortran IV and implemented on the IBM 360 system. The JOSS version is restricted by size and output flexibility but provides a useful tool for preliminary analyses of the problem. The Fortran IV version is designed to handle realistic problems involving complexes containing up to 100 missile silos.The basic underlying assumptions implicit in the model are essentially the same for both versions. The discussion in this Memorandum primarily concerns the Fortran IV version and includes functional descriptions of the major subroutines, necessary and sufficient inputs, possible outputs, and some suggestions to aid in determining probable causes of errors. The JOSS version is described briefly.The listing of each version of the model is given, along with details on various computations and example calculations. The model executes quite rapidly--the computing time for the example case is just less than 5 sec.*JOSS is the trademark and service mark of The Rand Corporation for its computer program and services using that program. The JOSS system is an on-line, time-shared system developed at Rand.

Creator

Pipes, L. J.

Publisher

Santa Monica, CA : The Rand Corporation

Date

1970

Format

vii, 56 pages ; 28 cm.

Type

report

Identifier

AD0875837

AD0875837

Date Issued

1970-07

Corporate Author

The RAND Corporation

Report Number

RM-6359-PR

AD Number

AD875837

NTRL Accession Number

AD875837

Distribution Conflict

No

Access Rights

THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE AND SALE; ITS DISTRIBUTION IS UNLIMITED.

Distribution Classification

1

Report Availability

Full text available by request

Subject

Launching Sites

Launching

Surface To Surface Missiles

Guided Missile Silos

Mathematical Models

Distribution

Input Output Devices

Computer Programs

Nuclear Warfare

Command and Control Systems

Abstract

This memorandum describes a mathematical model for processing and evaluating information obtained from observations of missile firings from silo complexes. The model, MEMO (Model for Evaluating Missile Observation information), was developed as an aid for investigating the empty-silo problem (sometimes referred to as the empty-hole problem). The empty-silo problem basically consists of determining a unique a posteriori probability distribution of residual missiles in a silo complex from which some missile launches have been observed. MEMO enables the simulation and investigation of these events as well as other aspects of the problem, e.g., cases involving noncircular errors.Two versions of MEMO are presented, one written for the JOSS* system and one written in Fortran IV and implemented on the IBM 360 system. The JOSS version is restricted by size and output flexibility but provides a useful tool for preliminary analyses of the problem. The Fortran IV version is designed to handle realistic problems involving complexes containing up to 100 missile silos. The basic underlying assumptions implicit in the model are essentially the same for both versions. The discussion in this Memorandum primarily concerns the Fortran IV version and includes functional descriptions of the major subroutines, necessary and sufficient inputs, possible outputs, and some suggestions to aid in determining probable causes of errors. The JOSS version is described briefly.The listing of each version of the model is given, along with details on various computations and example calculations. The model executes quite rapidly--the computing time for the example case is just less than 5 sec.*JOSS is the trademark and service mark of The Rand Corporation for its computer program and services using that program. The JOSS system is an on-line, time-shared system developed at Rand.

Contract

F44620-67-C-0045

Index Abstract

Contrails and DTIC truncated

Photo Quality

Not Needed

DTIC Record Exists

Yes