Title

Probabilistic Forecasts and Reproducing Scoring Systems

Description

Discusses ways to exploit in probabilistic terms the judgment of experts on political, economic, or military problems — frequently the best information available. The Memorandum considers ways to structure an incentive system in order to elicit the best possible probabilistic forecasts and touches on methods for combining several into consensus forecasts. Personal estimates, inherently uncertain, should be couched in probabilistic terms. Such an approach provides a concise expression of subjective uncertainty, an operational self-rating of confidence in the forecast, and readily usable data for decision-theoretic models and for combination with similar forecasts. "Reproducing scoring systems" are those free of incentives to distort by exaggeration or understatement. In political, economic, and military forecasts, however, these systems may not encourage forecasters to maximize their expected gains, may be polluted by conflict of interest, and may require many forecasts to distinguish the accurate from the inaccurate forecasters. (See also RM-5888, RM-6115, RM-6118.)

Creator

Brown, Thomas A.

Publisher

Santa Monica, CA : The Rand Corporation

Date

1970

Format

vii, 58 pages ; 28 cm.

Type

report

Identifier

AD0709906

AD0709906

Subject

Decision Making

Military Strategy

Group Dynamics

Economics

Probability

Statistical Analysis

Date Issued

1970-06

Extent

65

Corporate Author

The Rand Corporation

Report Number

RM-6299-ARPA

Contract

DAHC15 67 C 0141

NTRL Accession Number

AD709906

Index Abstract

Contrails and DTIC

Photo Quality

Not Needed

Distribution Classification

1

DTIC Record Exists

Yes

Report Availability

Full text available by request

Abstract

Discusses ways to exploit in probabilistic terms the judgment of experts on political, economic, or military problems — frequently the best information available. The Memorandum considers ways to structure an incentive system in order to elicit the best possible probabilistic forecasts and touches on methods for combining several into consensus forecasts. Personal estimates, inherently uncertain, should be couched in probabilistic terms. Such an approach provides a concise expression of subjective uncertainty, an operational self-rating of confidence in the forecast, and readily usable data for decision-theoretic models and for combination with similar forecasts. "Reproducing scoring systems" are those free of incentives to distort by exaggeration or understatement. In political, economic, and military forecasts, however, these systems may not encourage forecasters to maximize their expected gains, may be polluted by conflict of interest, and may require many forecasts to distinguish the accurate from the inaccurate forecasters. (See also RM-5888, RM-6115, RM-6118.)